The objectives of spatial planning should include the definition andassessment of possible mitigation strategies regarding the effects of naturalhazards on the surrounding territory. Unfortunately, however, there is oftena lack of adequate tools to provide necessary support to the local bodiesresponsible for land management. This paper deals with the conception, thedevelopment and the validation of an integrated numerical model for assessingsystemic vulnerability in complex and urbanized landslide-prone areas. Theproposed model considers this vulnerability not as a characteristic of aparticular element at risk, but as a peculiarity of a complex territorialsystem, in which the elements are reciprocally linked in a functional way. Itis an index of the tendency of a given territorial element to suffer damage(usually of a functional kind) due to its interconnections with otherelements of the same territorial system. The innovative nature of this workalso lies in the formalization of a procedure based on a network ofinfluences for an adequate assessment of such "systemic" vulnerability.This approach can be used to obtain information which is useful, in any givensituation of a territory hit by a landslide event, for the identification ofthe element which has suffered the most functional damage, ie the most"critical" element and the element which has the greatest repercussions onother elements of the system and thus a "decisive" role in the managementof the emergency.This model was developed within a GIS system through the following phases:1. the topological characterization of the territorial system studied and theassessment of the scenarios in terms of spatial landslide hazard. Astatistical method, based on neural networks was proposed for the assessmentof landslide hazard;2. the analysis of the direct consequences of a scenario event on the system;3. the definition of the assessment model of systemic vulnerability inlandslide-prone areas.To highlight the potentialities of the proposed approach we have described aspecific case study of landslide hazard in the local council area of Potenza.

A new approach is developed to find the source azimuth of the ultra lowfrequency (ULF) electromagnetic (EM) signals believed to be emanating fromwell defined seismic zone. The method is test applied on magnetic dataprocured from the seismoactive region of Koyna-Warna, known for prolongedreservoir triggered seismicity. Extremely low-noise, high-sensitivityLEMI-30 search coil magnetometers were used to measure simultaneously thevector magnetic field in the frequency range 0.001-32 Hz at two stations,the one located within and another ~100 km away from the seismicactive zone. During the observation campaign extending from 15 March to 30 June2006 two earthquakes (EQs) of magnitude (M_L>4) occurred, whichare searched for the presence of precursory EM signals.Comparison of polarization ellipses (PE) parameters formed by the magneticfield components at the measurement stations, in select frequency bands,allows discrimination of seismo-EM signals from the natural background ULFsignals of magnetospheric/ionospheric origin. The magnetic field componentscorresponding to spectral bands dominated by seismo-EM fields define the PEplane which at any instant contains the source of the EM fields.Intersection lines of such defined PE planes for distant observationstations clutter in to the source region. Approximating the magnetic-dipoleconfiguration for the source, the magnetic field components along theintersection lines suggest that azimuth of the EM source align in theNNW-SSE direction. This direction well coincides with the orientation ofnodal plane of normal fault plane mechanism for the two largest EQs recordedduring the campaign. More significantly the correspondence of this directionwith the tectonic controlled trend in local seismicity, it has been surmisedthat high pressure fluid flow along the fault that facilitate EQs in theregion may also be the source mechanism for EM fields by electrokineticeffect.

We investigate the VLF emissions observed by the Instrument Champ Electrique(ICE) experiment onboard the DEMETER micro-satellite. We analyze intensitylevel variation 10 days before and after the occurrence of l'Aquilaearthquake (EQ). We found a clear decrease of the VLF received signal relatedto ionospheric whistler mode (mainly Chorus emission) and to signaltransmitted by the DFY VLF station in Germany, few days (more than one week)before the earthquake. The VLF power spectral density decreases of more thantwo orders of magnitude until the EQ, and it recovers to normal levels justafter the EQ occurrence. The geomagnetic activity is principally weak fourdays before EQ and increases again one day before l'Aquila seismic event. Ourresults are discussed in the frame of short- and long-terms earthquakesprediction focusing on the crucial role of the magnetic field of the Earth.

This paper reviews the likely source characteristics, focal source mechanismand fault patterns of the nearest effective seismogenic zones to GreaterCairo Area. Furthermore, M_max and ground accelerations related tothe effective seismic events expected in future from those seismogenic zonesare well evaluated. For this purpose, the digital waveform of earthquakesthan M_L=3 that occurred in and around Greater Cairo Area from 1997to 2008 which have been recorded by the Egyptian National SeismologicalNetwork, are used to study source characterization, focal mechanism and faultpattern of the seismogenic zones around Greater Cairo Area. The groundmotions are predicted from seismogenic zones to assess seismic hazard in thenortheastern part of Greater Cairo, where three effective seismogenic zones,namely Abou Zabul, southeast Cairo trend and Dahshour area, have the largesteffect to the Greater Cairo Area. The M_max was determined, basedupon an empirical relationship between the seismic moment and the rupturelength of the fault during the earthquake. The estimated M_maxexpected from Abou Zabul, southeast Cairo trend, Dahshour seismic sources areof M_w magnitudes equal to 5.4, 5.1, and 6.5, respectively. Thepredominant fundamental frequency and soil amplification characteristics atthe area were obtained using boreholes data and in-situ ambient noisemeasurement.

The past and projected future precipitation sum in May-September for twoareas in Finland, one located in the south-west (SW) and the other in thenorth-east (NE), is studied using 13 regional climate simulations and threeobservational datasets. The conditions in the present-day climate foragricultural crop production are far more favourable in the south-westernpart of the country than the more continental north-eastern Finland. Based ona new high-resolution observational precipitation dataset for Finland(FMI_grid), with a resolution of 10×10 km, the onlystatistically significant past long-term (1908-2008) precipitationtendencies in the two study regions are positive. Differences betweenFMI_grid and two other observational datasets during 1961-2000are rather large in the NE, whereas in the SW the datasets agree better.Observational uncertainties stem from the interpolation and sampling errors.The projected increases in precipitation in the early stage of the growingseason would be most favourable for agricultural productivity, but theprojected increases in August and September might be harmful. Modelprojections for the future indicate a statistically significant increase inprecipitation for most of the growing season by 2100, but the distribution ofprecipitation within the growing season is not necessarily the most optimal.

An analysis of factors influencing effective soil acidification managementis reported. This analysis was conducted simultaneously at both national andlocal levels. These investigations were accomplished in three stages: (i)validation of acid soil spatial patterns using systems analysis andgeoinformation methods; (ii) spatial statistical analysis of soil pHdiversity using a statistical grid method; and (iii) development of theconcept of soil acidity management. Results indicate thenational spatial distribution of topsoil reaction is a natural and stablephenomenon related to Quaternary sub-surface deposits. However, secondaryeffects of topsoil liming are evident in both spatial and temporal soilreaction patterns.

Hourly sea level data from tide gauges and a barotropic model are used toexplore the spatial and temporal variability of sea level extremes in theMediterranean Sea and the Atlantic coasts of the Iberian peninsula onseasonal time scales. Significant spatial variability is identified in theobservations in all seasons. The Atlantic stations show larger extremevalues than the Mediterranean Sea primarily due to the tidal signal. Whenthe tidal signal is removed most stations have maximum values of less than90 cm occurring in winter or autumn. The maxima in spring and summer areless than 60 cm in most stations. The wind and atmospheric forcingcontributes about 50 cm in the winter and between 20-40 cm in the otherseasons. In the western Mediterranean the observed extreme values are lessthan 50 cm, except near the Strait of Gibraltar. Direct atmospheric forcingcontributes significantly to sea level extremes. Maximum sea level valuesdue to atmospheric forcing reach in some stations 45 cm during the winter.During the summer the contribution of the direct atmospheric forcing isbetween 10-20 cm. The Adriatic Sea shows a resonant behaviour with maximumextreme observed sea level values around 200 cm found at the northern part.Trends in the 99.9% percentiles are present in several areas, howevermost of them are removed when the 50% percentile is subtracted indicatingthat changes in the extremes are in line with mean sea level change. TheNorth Atlantic Oscillation and the Mediterranean Oscillation Index are wellcorrelated with the changes in the 99.9% winter values in the Atlantic,western Mediterranean and the Adriatic stations. The correlation of the NAOand the MOI indices in the Atlantic and western Mediterranean is significantin the autumn too. The correlations between the NAO and MOI index and thechanges in the sea level extremes become insignificant when the 50%percentile is removed indicating again that changes in extremes have beendominated by changes in the mean sea level.

We present the GITEWS approach to source modeling for the tsunami earlywarning in Indonesia. Near-field tsunami implies special requirements toboth warning time and details of source characterization. To meet theserequirements, we employ geophysical and geological information to predefinea maximum number of rupture parameters. We discretize the tsunamigenic Sundaplate interface into an ordered grid of patches (150×25) and employ theconcept of Green's functions for forward and inverse rupture modeling.Rupture Generator, a forward modeling tool, additionally employs different scaling laws andslip shape functions to construct physically reasonable source models usingbasic seismic information only (magnitude and epicenter location). GITEWSruns a library of semi- and fully-synthetic scenarios to be extensivelyemployed by system testing as well as by warning center personnel teachingand training. Near real-time GPS observations are a very valuablecomplement to the local tsunami warning system. Their inversion providesquick (within a few minutes on an event) estimation of the earthquake magnitude,rupture position and, in case of sufficient station coverage, details ofslip distribution.

A risk reduction program was developed after debris-flow disaster analysis isconducted using mitigation structures, evacuation measures and communityrestrained expansion strategy. The risk assessment method delineates hazardzones and analyzes vulnerability and the resilient capacity of an affectedarea, allowing the prediction of losses of properties and lives, and thecorresponding risk. It can also be used to evaluate performance of a riskreduction program. The proposed method was applied to the Songhe community asa case study to assess debris-flow risk and performance of reduction programsconsisting of mitigation structures, evacuation measures and a restrainedexpansion strategy. Total annual risk decreased to $0.01 million from$0.72 million for the No. 1 Torrent and to $0.36 million from$1.22 million for the No. 2 Torrent after mitigation structures wereinstalled, and evacuation measures were implemented based on restrainedexpansion. Although mitigation structures are costly, they can reduce thesize of hazard zones. Delimitating the Designated Soil and Water ConservationArea restrains community expansion and decreases possible losses. Althoughevacuation measures cannot reduce the size of hazard zones, they effectivelyincrease the resilient capacity of residents. The benefit-cost ratio formitigation structures exceeds 1.0 for both torrents with an average of 3.87;the benefit-cost ratio for evacuation measures is markedly greater than 1.0.Combining mitigation structures and evacuation measures increases the totalbenefit with a benefit-cost ratio of 4.38. Analytical results showed that therisk reduction program is cost-effective.